{"version":"2.3.0-riskgeo","generated_at":"2026-10-12T14:37:35.684Z","source":"data/migration.json v2.3.0-riskgeo","model":{"spring_factor":0.62,"resident_base":4,"sigma_divisor":6,"shifts_note":"Сдвиг пиков по флайвею: на юге осенний транзит проходит позже (птица добирается с севера), весенний — раньше. Восточноазиатский пролёт сдвинут на 1–2 недели позже западного.","ebird_alpha":0.3,"formula":"R = max(M, C, Z) × MW × MB × BP × WD — три канала риска в шкале 0–100: M транзит (миграционный календарь 8 групп видов, с v2.3 смешан с eBird S&T-кривой абундантности, α=0.3), C колонии = 100·c_fw·gauss(w, peak=28, σ) (гнездовые скопления, июнь–август), Z зимовки = 100·z_fw·trap(w) (трапеция ноябрь–март с заворотом через Новый год); MW = 0.70 + 0.45*W + 0.25*P; MB = 0.85 + 0.30*B, B — сатурация свежих ВПГП-событий вверх по коридору (WOAH WAHIS) с гаверсинус-затуханием exp(-d/1000км) до 16 узлов (v2.3); BP = 1.00 + 0.20·(1−exp(−bp_raw/4)) — входящее давление от стран-граничников РФ (окно 21 день); WD = 1.00 + 0.15·(1−exp(−wd_raw/2)) — ветровой перенос в сторону РФ при активных вспышках у границы (72 ч, Open-Meteo, опорные точки границы); chan = argmax(M,C,Z)","factors":{"M":"транзитный канал — миграционная фаза пролёта (с v2.3: бленд экспертной базы и eBird S&T-фенологии)","C":"колониальный канал — гнездовые скопления (июнь–август)","Z":"зимовочный канал — массовые зимовки (ноябрь–март)","W":"погодный форсаж (аномалия холода, ледостав) — активна (Open-Meteo)","P":"персистентность вируса (температура) — активна","B":"фон заносов (WOAH WAHIS, с v2.3 — гаверсинус-затухание до узлов, e-fold 1000 км) — активна","BP":"входящее давление (WOAH WAHIS, страны-граничники РФ, окно 21 дн) — активен","WD":"ветровой перенос в сторону РФ (Open-Meteo, 72 ч, опорные точки границы) — активен"}},"channels":{"transit":{"label":"Транзит","desc":"миграционный календарь пролёта 8 групп видов-резервуаров"},"colonies":{"label":"Колонии","desc":"гнездовые колонии (чайковые, бакланы, лысухи) — гауссиана пика н28, июнь–август","params":{"bsm":{"c":0.82,"sigma":4.5},"ea":{"c":0.62,"sigma":5},"eaa":{"c":0.55,"sigma":5},"ca":{"c":0.42,"sigma":5}}},"wintering":{"label":"Зимовки","desc":"массовые зимовки водоплавающих — трапеция ноябрь–март с заворотом через год","params":{"bsm":{"z":0.88,"start":44,"full1":50,"full2":5,"end":10},"ea":{"z":0.5,"start":45,"full1":51,"full2":4,"end":9},"eaa":{"z":0.38,"start":46,"full1":51,"full2":3,"end":9},"ca":{"z":0.25,"start":46,"full1":50,"full2":3,"end":8}}}},"flyways":[{"id":"ea","label":"Восточно-Атлантический","short":"В-Атл","color":"#38bdf8","shift":{"autumn":0,"spring":0},"regions":"Калининградская, Балтика, Северо-Запад, Карелия, Беломорье, Мурманская","path":[[54.7,20.5],[56.3,26.5],[59.9,29.3],[61.8,32.6],[64.1,34.8],[66.5,33.6],[68.5,38]],"hubs":[{"name":"Кургальский п-ов и Финский залив","ll":[60.05,27.85]},{"name":"Онежское озеро","ll":[62,35.2]},{"name":"Дельта Северной Двины","ll":[64.4,40.5]},{"name":"Кандалакшский залив","ll":[66.9,32.8]}]},{"id":"bsm","label":"Черноморско-Средиземноморский","short":"Черном.","color":"#fb923c","shift":{"autumn":2,"spring":-2},"regions":"Крым, Кубань, Ростовская, Калмыкия, Волгоградская, Астраханская, Каспий","path":[[45,38.9],[47.1,39.4],[46.3,42.8],[47.5,44.5],[45.9,47.9],[46.3,48.4],[46.6,49.7]],"hubs":[{"name":"Кубанские плавни и Приазовские лиманы","ll":[45.6,38.3]},{"name":"Оз. 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Ханка","ll":[45,132.9]},{"name":"Камчатка (юг)","ll":[52.5,156.5]}]}],"species":[{"id":"waders","label":"Кулики","latin":"Charadrii","weight":0.55,"autumn":{"start":29,"peak":33,"end":40},"spring":{"start":17,"peak":19,"end":23},"fw":{"ea":1,"bsm":1,"ca":1,"eaa":1},"note":"Самый ранний осенний транзит (с середины июля); исторический резервуар гриппа А, роль в ВПГП вспомогательная."},{"id":"dabbling","label":"Речные утки","latin":"Anas platyrhynchos, A. crecca, Mareca spp., Spatula spp.","weight":1,"autumn":{"start":35,"peak":42,"end":46},"spring":{"start":12,"peak":17,"end":21},"fw":{"ea":1,"bsm":1,"ca":1,"eaa":1},"note":"Основной природный резервуар H5N1: кряква, чирки, свиязь, шилохвость, широконоска. Массовые скопления на линьке и подъём на крыло молодняка."},{"id":"diving","label":"Нырковые утки","latin":"Aythya ferina, A. fuligula, Clangula hyemalis","weight":0.85,"autumn":{"start":37,"peak":43,"end":48},"spring":{"start":14,"peak":18,"end":22},"fw":{"ea":1,"bsm":0.9,"ca":1,"eaa":1},"note":"Красноголовый и хохлатый нырки, морянка; сдвиг позже речных уток, крупные стои на больших водоёмах."},{"id":"geese","label":"Гуси","latin":"Anser albifrons, A. fabalis, A. erythropus","weight":1,"autumn":{"start":38,"peak":41,"end":47},"spring":{"start":10,"peak":14,"end":18},"fw":{"ea":1,"bsm":1,"ca":1,"eaa":1},"note":"Белолобый, гуменник, пискулька. Плотные транзитные косяки с концентрацией на остановках; классический вектор заноса весной с юга и осенью с севера."},{"id":"swans","label":"Лебеди","latin":"Cygnus cygnus, C. columbianus bewickii, C. olor","weight":0.75,"autumn":{"start":40,"peak":45,"end":49},"spring":{"start":12,"peak":15,"end":19},"fw":{"ea":1,"bsm":0.8,"ca":0.7,"eaa":1},"note":"Кликун, малый и шипун; последний осенний пик водоплавающих, держатся до ледостава."},{"id":"coot","label":"Лысуха","latin":"Fulica atra","weight":0.6,"autumn":{"start":38,"peak":43,"end":47},"spring":{"start":15,"peak":19,"end":22},"fw":{"ea":1,"bsm":1,"ca":0.8,"eaa":0.8},"note":"Многотысячные зимовки и остановки на юге РФ; в волнах ВПГП регулярно попадает в массовую гибель."},{"id":"gulls","label":"Чайки и крачки","latin":"Larus spp., Chroicocephalus ridibundus, Sterna spp.","weight":0.9,"autumn":{"start":33,"peak":39,"end":46},"spring":{"start":14,"peak":18,"end":21},"fw":{"ea":1,"bsm":1,"ca":0.7,"eaa":1},"note":"С 2021 года (клад 2.3.4.4b) чайковые — ключевой вектор волны: послегнездовая дисперсия, связь морских колоний Баренцева/Каспия с внутренними водоёмами."},{"id":"brant","label":"Казарки","latin":"Branta leucopsis, B. bernicla, B. canadensis","weight":0.7,"autumn":{"start":37,"peak":40,"end":44},"spring":{"start":20,"peak":23,"end":25},"fw":{"ea":1,"bsm":0.3,"ca":0.4,"eaa":1},"note":"Белощёкая казарка (Балтика/Северо-Запад), чёрная казарка (Баренцево—Каспий тропа), канадская (ЕАА). Короткое плотное окно."}],"ebird":{"alpha":0.3,"updated":"2026-10-12","source":"eBird Status & Trends (публичные сезональные барчарты относительной абундантности, ebirdst) — приближение","data":"data/ebird_phenology.json"},"changelog":[{"v":"2.3.0-riskgeo","date":"2026-10-12","title":"География заносов (гаверсинус) + eBird-фенология + риск-страница","items":["И1 — дистанционный фон заносов: координаты стран (опорные точки, крупные страны набором) → гаверсинус-дистанция до каждого из 16 узлов → экспоненциальное затухание exp(-d/1000 км); у каждого узла свой B/MB (geo.per_node); BP (сухопутные границы) остаётся страновым по дизайну","И2 — транзитный канал M смешан с недельными кривыми относительной абундантности eBird S&T (вес 0.3, data/ebird_phenology.json): летнее плато чайковых, резидентный фон речных уток, ранние кулики, острые пики гусей, зимовочные плато нырковых и лебедей; бэктест 5/5 сохранён","И7 — компактная риск-страница /risk/ для встраивания и быстрых ссылок + freshness-чек vetflu в watchdog ядра rss-core","И6 — changelog модели в model.json (этот список) и data/changelog.json","FAO EMPRES-i API недоступен (HTTP 404, проверено 12.10.2026) — остаёмся на WOAH WAHIS, тот же официальный уровень"]},{"v":"2.2.0-wind","date":"2026-10-11","title":"Ветровой перенос WD + интерактив","items":["WD = 1.00 + 0.15·(1−exp(−wd_raw/2)) — ветровой перенос в сторону РФ: Open-Meteo 72 ч на 45 опорных точках границы, outbreak-gated (ветер считается только при активной вспышке ≤21 дн у границы)","Приграничные веса вынесены в общий модуль borders.mjs (BP и WD делят таблицу)","Симулятор «что если» (слайдеры каналов и множителей), большой график истории R, changelog-блок, ревизия фенологии","Telegram-алерты по уровням (ok<45≤watch<75≤alert) — send_alert.mjs, пуш только при смене уровня"]},{"v":"2.1.0-pressure","date":"2026-10-11","title":"Входящее давление BP","items":["BP = 1.00 + 0.20·(1−exp(−bp_raw/4)) — страны-граничники РФ в коридоре флайвея, окно 21 день, exp-сатурация; только усиление (тихая граница не ослабляет)","BP вплетён в series/nodes/history/витрину/FAQ; бэктест не затронут (5/5, честная пометка)"]},{"v":"2.0.0-channels","date":"2026-10-11","title":"Три канала риска вместо одного транзита","items":["R = max(M, C, Z) × MW × MB: транзит + колониальный канал (гнездовые скопления, пик н28) + зимовочный (трапеция ноябрь–март с заворотом через год)","Узловая детализация: 16 узлов со своим погодным множителем MW по метеоточке","История R (кап 180 дней) со спарклайнами, RSS-лента смен фазы, OG-картинка, API-секция","Бэктест v2 по волнам 2020–2023; колониальный канал добавлен пост-хоком после разбора промаха v1 (лето 2021, Каспий) — помечено честно"]},{"v":"1.x — фазы 1–3","date":"2026-10-10","title":"База: календарь, погода, фон вспышек","items":["Фаза 1 — миграционный календарь 8 групп видов × 4 флайвея, индекс M, карта со скраббером недель","Фаза 2 — погодный слой: W (аномалия холода, ледостав) и P (персистентность вируса) из Open-Meteo против норм 2015–2024","Фаза 3 — фон заносов B из WOAH WAHIS (окно 60 дней, вес по свежести рапортов)"]}],"weather":{"updated":"2026-10-12T14:36:35.005Z","source":"Open-Meteo: archive 2015–2024 (нормы) + forecast past7/next7","formulas":{"A":"clamp(-anomaly/8,0,1)","F":"share(Tmin<0, 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